Prospects for the dollar. Dollar exchange rate forecast. The main groups of factors that determine currency indicators

Bank of Australia prints about 400 million bills with a typo ...) confirmed that he printed about 400 million bills of 50 Australian dollars with a typo. The representative of the regulator told the portal News.com about this ... the banknotes issued in circulation are about 2.3 billion Australian dollars ($ 1.6 billion), CNN calculated. Experts predicted a depreciation of the ruble amid easing Central Bank policy ... rub. per dollar... The average value as of June 30 is 66.14 rubles. per dollar, as of December 31 - 67.83 rubles. per dollar... The most optimistic ... the forecast value is RUB 65.49. per dollar, at the end of the year - 66.03 rubles. per dollar... At the same time, the spread between the most ... Jyske Bank - 62.22 rubles. per dollar; by the end of the year, economists at BNP Paribas predict dollar at 94.47 rubles, these are the most pessimistic ... The dollar rate for the first time since April 8 rose above 65 rubles. ... in three weeks rose above 65 rubles. At the peak cost dollar reached the level of 65.0175 rubles., up 56 kopecks. above ... the close of previous trading. The previous time above 65 rubles. course dollar rose on the Moscow Exchange on April 8, 2019. Euro exchange rate .... above the closing level of previous trades. By 19:25 Moscow time course dollar on the Moscow Exchange reached 64.76 rubles, the euro rate ... Russia increased investments in US Treasury securities to $ 14.5 billion ... billion At the end of June 2018, it became known that the share dollar in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia decreased to a historical minimum of 21 ... The ruble strengthened against the dollar and the euro at the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange Course dollar at the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 65.25 rubles, ... closing of previous trading by 43 kopecks. Mid-March course dollar fell to 65.11 rubles, which was the lowest since October ... by the United States of new sanctions against Russia, the ruble has depreciated. Course dollar then amounted to 65.75 rubles, and the euro - 73.75 rubles ...

Finance, 22 Mar, 12:51

Morgan Stanley analysts predicted weaker dollar this year The global economy is undergoing processes that can trigger a weakening dollar in 2019, analysts at Morgan Stanley say. Last year ... worked to strengthen the American currency. Three key factors that helped dollar grow last year, in 2019 they can play on ... Stanley, all three factors together can trigger a weakening cycle dollar and the markets are now underestimating this risk. Natalia Demchenko

Economics, 20 Mar, 21:36

The ruble strengthened to a maximum since August 2018 amid the decision of the US Federal Reserve ... rate hikes in 2019. This strengthened the Russian currency. Course dollar against the ruble fell below 64 rubles. for the first time since August 8 ... barrel. Brent is trading above $ 68 a barrel. March 18 courses dollar and the euro fell to the level of the summer of 2018. The American currency dropped below 64.5 rubles. Cheaper last time dollar was traded on the Moscow Exchange in early August 2018. Course...

Economics, 20 Mar, 01:28

Ryabkov considered the refusal of the dollar to protect the economies of countries from US actions ... Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov believes that the refusal to dollar will increase the protection of countries' economies from arbitrary actions of the United States, which ... many politicians and economic operators to the role of the American dollar". The Deputy Foreign Minister believes that from dollar you have to give up. This will increase the security of your own ...

Finance, 15 Mar, 19:54

The dollar fell below RUB 65. for the first time since October 2018 Course dollar at the auction on March 15, dropped to 64.96 rubles, ... the euro on March 16-18 will be 74.06 rubles, and dollar - 65.42 rubles, the Bank of Russia reported. According to the Intercontinental Exchange ...

Finance, 15 Mar, 18:08

Dollar exchange rate updated at least 2019 During trading on March 15, the rate dollar dropped to 65.11 rubles. - minimum since October 2018 ..., 92 rubles. The Central Bank set the official rate for March 16-18 dollar at the level of 65.42 rubles, euros - 74.06 rubles. Cost ...

Finance, 13 Mar, 15:31

Mosnarbank, which fell under sanctions, stopped making payments in dollars Eurofinance Mosnarbank, which fell under US sanctions, stopped making payments in dollars... This was reported on the website of the credit institution. “In connection with ..., starting from 11.03.2019, the bank does not make payments to dollars USA, "the bank said in a statement. Office for the Control of Foreign ... Abroad. The Russian Foreign Ministry called the sanctions a blow to dollar.

Politics, 13 Mar, 10:42

Foreign Ministry calls US sanctions against Eurofinance a blow to the dollar ... calculations. Washington itself is increasingly convincing the world community of insecurity dollar, pushes to abandon its use, "- said in the message. IN...

Economics, 06 Mar, 11:29

Ministry of Economic Development has worsened the forecast for the ruble exchange rate for 2019 ... Minister Maxim Oreshkin. This is due to the “change in the euro / dollar", And not with the internal factors of the Russian economy, he explained. Ministry of Economic Development ... the forecast for the ruble “is more likely associated with a change in the euro / dollarthan with some internal factors. " Earlier, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade predicted the rate ... The exact forecast figure for 2019 is 66.4 rubles. per dollar, follows from the presentation to the speech of the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, said "Interfax". At the same time ...

Finance, 21 Feb, 03:38

Zimbabwe decided to get rid of the dollar and introduce a new currency ... the course means Zimbabwe is working for two different dollar - real cash dollars and digital dollars, which are priced much cheaper, explains the head of the Central Bank ... hyperinflation has withdrawn its own currency from circulation. Instead of Zimbabwean dollar residents of the country began to use dollars USA, British pounds and currencies of neighboring countries ...

Finance, 14 Feb, 16:07

The dollar exchange rate exceeded 67 rubles. for the first time since January 15 ... above RUB 67, follows from the trading data on the Moscow Exchange. Dollar reached a maximum of 67.045 rubles. At the same time, the maximum euro amounted to 75.53 rubles. January 8 course dollar dropped below 67 rubles. for the first time since December 17, 2018 ..., 865 rubles. January 24 at the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange rate dollar dropped below 66 rubles. for the first time since December 7 last year ...

Finance, 08 Feb, 09:46

Gref called it dangerous to shake his finger at dollar holders ... that de-dollarization is necessary and strategically correct, he said. "Today dollar is a monopoly in the world, and any monopoly is evil, "said the head of Sberbank ... and in Swiss francs. Most of this portfolio is occupied by dollarand the rest is the ruble and other currencies The idea of \u200b\u200bde-dollarization of the Russian economy ... He stressed that the United States often uses restrictions on operations in dollars for political pressure. Already in early October, the government presented ...

Politics, 05 Feb, 20:18

Russian Ambassador to Iran announced the rejection of the dollar in mutual settlements ... Dzhagaryan. According to him, the parties “have already essentially abandoned dollar". “We will rely on the Russian ruble and the Iranian rial, in ... Why did the Bank of Russia switch from dollars to euros and yuan ... and in very exceptional circumstances. Thus, the United States froze tens of billions dollars the Iranian Central Bank (some of these locks date back to 1979 ... the world. The yuan could potentially become a global reserve currency along with dollar, said on January 9, Governor of the Bank of England (British Central Bank) Mark Carney ...%, although about half of international trade settlements are still conducted in dollars... “The US economy surpassed the British economy in the second half of the 19th century ... The exchange rate of the dollar fell below 69 rubles ... in the foreign exchange trading of the Moscow Exchange, the ruble is strengthening in relation to dollar and euros. The exchange rate of the American currency has been systematically decreasing for two ... Moscow time. North Sea oil is traded at $ 54.65. 21 December dollar rose to 69 rubles. for the first time in three months. Euro overcame ... lost 21.1% of the cost to dollar dollar strengthened (by 6.3% in ... Chronicle of the weakening ruble: what will happen to the exchange rate in 2019 ... lost 21.1% of the cost to dollar and 15.5% against the euro. Two previous years, the ruble to dollar strengthened (by 6.3% a year ... they diverge very strongly - from 65 to 75 rubles. to dollar - depending on the scenarios under consideration, taking into account the varying degrees of pain in the new ... development of the US-China trade conflict. According to Sberbank forecasts, the average rate dollar in 2019–2020 it will amount to 65–70 rubles. at cost ... Central Bank recorded growth in demand for foreign currency in October ... years by 4% and 22%, respectively. It is specified that the demand for dollars in October exceeded September indicators by 5%, demand for European ... The dollar has risen in price to 69 rubles. for the first time in three months ... loses in price following oil. At auction on Friday dollar has risen in price to 69 rubles., follows from the trading data. It happened ... by more than 5%. On Wednesday evening, the Russian currency went up to dollar and the euro amid news of the US Treasury's decision to withdraw ... The euro rate exceeded 78 rubles. for the first time since late September ...: 40 Moscow time, the maximum was 78.12 rubles. Moreover, the course dollar at the Moscow Exchange exceeded 68 rubles. for the first time since November 14. By ... at the same time, the maximum was 68.48 rubles. per dollar... The day before, the euro rate also rose above 77 rubles. for the first time since ... the sanctions list, the ruble exchange rate began to strengthen. By 21:10 Moscow time dollar cost 66.97 rubles, but later corrected to 67.14 ... Worse than trend: why the ruble weakened in 2018 after two years of growth ... to rise in price dollar and the flow of capital from emerging markets to US assets. This year's index dollar (DXY) representing the cost dollar relatively major ... emerging markets have their own problems that are not directly related to the exchange rate dollar... Strengthening dollar may correlate with stress in emerging markets, but not ... Medvedev ruled out the superiority of one currency in the world ..., there can be no hegemony, ”the Russian prime minister said. Talking about dollar as a reserve currency, he recalled that a hundred years ago “was .... The document indicates that European companies are still trading in dollars in key strategic markets, exposing the business to foreign exchange and political ... The dollar rate on the Moscow Exchange fell below ₽66 ... follows from the data of the Moscow Exchange. So, at 21:25 alone dollar cost 65.95 rubles. By 21:30, it reached a minimum of 65.91 rubles. At the same time, the maximum per day dollar showed during the opening of trading - for him at 10:00 ... 74.9 rubles. On Tuesday, November 13, the euro exchange rate and dollar against the ruble began to rise after the value of .... At the end of October, analysts from the Gaidar Institute admitted that the course dollar can grow up to 80-90 rubles. in case if... Raiffeisenbank allowed the dollar to rise above 70 rubles. by the end of the year ... for oil and the absence of operations of the Ministry of Finance for the purchase of foreign currency. Course dollar by the end of 2018, it may exceed the mark of 70 rubles, they admit ... in the absence of intervention (it is possible that the mark of 70 rubles for dollar with current oil), ”the review says. In the afternoon on Monday, the ruble is trading around the level of 67.7 rubles. per dollar... Back in mid-October dollar cost about 65.5 rubles. Partially mitigate the deficit ... The dollar rate rose above 67 rubles on the stock exchange. for the first time since October 11 Course dollar on the Moscow Exchange exceeded 67 rubles. for the first time since October 11, ... the currency was sold for 67.02 rubles. Moreover, at the minimum dollar traded for 66.77 rubles. The euro at 11:44 was traded ... 76 rubles, and the minimum was 75.72 rubles. November 2 cost dollar at the auction for the first time since October 12, it rose above 66 rubles ... falling oil prices to $ 50-55 per barrel, the rate dollar may rise to 80-90 rubles. An Israeli citizen in Vykhino-Zhulebino was robbed for $ 357.5 thousand On Thursday, November 8, a man turned to the police department in the Vykhino-Zhulebino district, who said that his father, who had come to visit him from Israel, had been robbed, $ 357.5 thousand were stolen from him. in the territorial police department, the information was confirmed by a source in the central office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. “About 18 hours ... The dollar exchange rate exceeded 66 rubles. The cost dollar during trading on the Moscow Exchange for the first time since October 12 ... at the level of 66.14 rubles. By 17:00 Moscow time course dollar at the Moscow Exchange dropped to 65.97 rubles, having added since the opening ... for oil will fall to $ 50-55 per barrel, then the rate dollar can grow up to 80-90 rubles. Euro and dollar fell after Bolton's statement on anti-Russian sanctions ... the decision to impose new sanctions against Russia. Euro and dollar fell against the ruble on the Moscow Stock Exchange after the assistant ... of the closing level of previous trading. After the publication of Bloomberg, the euro and dollar against the ruble began to correct upward. By 15:50 Moscow time, the value of the euro on the Moscow Exchange reached 74.53 rubles. dollar - 65.43 rubles. The main danger for Russian markets in any ... Experts have named the conditions for the dollar to rise to 90 rubles. ... the preservation of sanctions, the ruble will collapse in relation to dollar up to 80–90 rubles. Course dollar may rise to 80–90 rubles, if ... the ruble exchange rate, it reaches the level of 80–90 rubles. per dollar at an oil price of $ 50–55 per barrel, it is very high, ”says ... 2021, and according to the conservative - up to 65.7 rubles. per dollar... In the Accounts Chamber, the ruble exchange rate included in the draft budget was considered ... The dollar fell below RUB 65. for the first time since October 1 Course dollar dropped below 65 rubles. for the first time since October 1. About this ... traded below 75 rubles. 8 August. The Central Bank has established an official rate dollar Venezuela refused to use the dollar in the foreign exchange market due to sanctions Venezuelan authorities have decided not to sell dollars in the foreign exchange market and use other currencies due to sanctions ..., the yuan and other currencies, except for the American dollar... As noted by Bloomberg, now one dollar officially stands at 63 Venezuelan bolivars, while ... in August, the national currency of Venezuela was devalued by 96% in relation to dollar... In September, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the US will strengthen ... The Central Bank answered the question about the possibility of tightening dollar deposits Kostin called the complete rejection of the dollar a utopia ... the financial and economic block of the government is working on the issue of reducing the dependence of the economy on dollar, but there are no plans to abandon dollar payments. His plan ... - Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov explained that to reduce the impact dollar on the Russian economy is necessary to "ensure stability in calculations." When ... does not go. As Siluanov explained, “no one is going to rule out dollarwalking dollar, no one is going to forcibly change dollar savings for ruble ones or ... Aven compared giving up the dollar with exchanging an ax for a skin ... I am alternatives in world trade [except dollar] I do not see. It would be very ineffective to give up dollar, these are colossal inflationary costs, ”he said ... value is freedom. “If a person wants to dollars, then let it be in dollars... What does prohibit mean? Want dollarswant the euro. It is another matter that such ... “to the extent that the financial authorities of the United States will not hinder the use of dollar in calculations ". At the same time, he stressed the need to create new reserve ... VTB spoke about the plan for de-dollarization proposed to the Ministry of Finance ... VTB noted that this is not a complete rejection of dollar, its withdrawal or a ban on circulation in the economy. “Our proposals ... Russia may be forced to increase settlements in national currencies, refusing to dollar... This, as he stated at the Moscow Financial Forum at the beginning ... because such currencies are less stable. “Only increase, replace [calculations in dollars] is impossible. National currencies are more volatile, and this generates additional costs ...

(10 estimates, on average: 4,60 out of 5)

Well, it's time to write fresh ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018... In this article, I will traditionally consider the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in the past year, the main factors affecting the value of the Russian currency, how they have changed and can change further, in order to draw conclusions about what will be the dollar exchange rate in Russia in 2018... I think that this should be of interest to all residents of the Russian Federation.

As always, I want to make a reservation right away: in the article I will cite various facts, on the basis of which I will draw my own conclusions. You have the right to agree with them or disagree, but you must make your financial decisions based on your own (and not mine or someone else's) conclusions, and independently, fully bear responsibility for them.

So, before making a forecast of the dollar rate in Russia in 2018, it is necessary to consider what its dynamics were in the past year.

Dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017.

In 2017, nothing interesting happened to the ruble. In comparison with previous years, its rate looked quite stable, and even strengthened slightly over the year.

Here is a graph showing the dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017:

As you can see for yourself, there was no trend in the ruble in 2017, the rate was moving within the channel that I marked on the chart. The year began with the upper border of the channel, and ended closer to the lower one, thus, at the end of the year, there was a slight strengthening of the ruble exchange rate: from about 61 to 57 rubles per dollar, that is, by 6.5%.

It can be stated that in 2017 the ruble exchange rate stabilized and fluctuated within the 56-61 channel. But will this stability continue in 2018? Let's analyze.

Ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018: fundamental analysis.

First of all, let's look at the fundamental factors affecting the ruble exchange rate and how they might change in 2018.

Factor 1. Oil prices. The ruble's dependence on oil prices is becoming less and less. So, for example, in 2017, oil prices were in a trend, but the ruble exchange rate was not. Here is a chart of Brent crude oil prices over the same period.

At the beginning of 2017, oil prices were falling, and the ruble was strengthening, although it should logically fall. Then oil took a fairly strong upward trend, and the ruble exchange rate fluctuated back and forth, as a result, practically did not change.

Please note: in June 2017, with an oil price of about $ 44 per barrel, the ruble exchange rate was about 57 rubles per dollar. In December 2017, with an oil price of about $ 67 per barrel, the ruble exchange rate is again about 57 rubles per dollar. During this period, oil has risen in price by 1.5 times, but the ruble exchange rate has not changed!

What does this mean? On the one hand - that the relationship between the ruble exchange rate and the price of oil is decreasing. On the other hand, we all understand very well that the ruble continues to be a commodity currency, and if the ruble exchange rate did not change with the growth of oil by 1.5 times, this means that in the absence of such growth, it would fall.

Thus, further strengthening of oil will not cause a strong strengthening of the ruble, but its fall in price may cause a weakening of the Russian currency.

What will happen to oil in 2018?

The supply of oil on the market continues to exceed the demand for it, and this trend is predicted to continue;
The OPEC agreement to limit production may not be extended (analysts see ambiguity in the text, moreover, it is unprofitable for Libya to support it - 50% of the country's GDP is oil revenues);
High oil prices will increase US shale oil production;
Development of new conventional oil fields in Alaska is expected.

Therefore, a strong rise in oil prices should not be expected, but a fall from the current levels is more likely. If oil prices fall, the ruble exchange rate is likely to weaken too.

Factor 2. Sanctions. Sanctions, like “anti-sanctions”, also have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, although in the last year their impact was not as strong as before. We see that no one is going to lift the sanctions, moreover, they are constantly increasing, new ones are being introduced.

All this has a negative impact on the Russian economy (I think that there is no one left who believes that “sanctions are only for our benefit”), and indirectly, on the ruble exchange rate as the national currency. Because the volume of export-import operations, the inflow of investments (on the contrary, there is an outflow), GDP is decreasing, inflation is growing.

The lifting of sanctions and anti-sanctions, especially a complete one, would contribute to a rather significant strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, since it would immediately create serious preconditions for economic growth. Further expansion of sanctions will continue to put pressure on the economy and the national currency, and contribute to further devaluation of the ruble.

The nearest negative event in this direction may be a ban on foreign investors from purchasing Russian Eurobonds, OFZ and, which is planned to be imposed in February 2018.

It was only after the appearance of this news that a serious outflow of foreign capital from the Russian stock market followed - investors withdrew hundreds of millions of dollars in December.

Therefore, the imposition of such sanctions can have a rather serious indirect impact on the ruble exchange rate, and will contribute to its decline. Judge for yourself, now about 1/3 of the government bonds of the Russian Federation are in the hands of non-residents - such a share of capital can be lost only directly due to the introduction of the ban. This will indirectly affect the withdrawal of non-resident capital from other Russian assets, in particular - shares. The fall in stock market indices in December is a direct confirmation of this.

In addition, the gradual decline in the yield on Russian ruble government bonds leads to the fact that they become unprofitable for foreign investors even without a ban (the ratio ceases to be attractive).

All this speaks of the continuation of the outflow of foreign capital from the Russian Federation, which will contribute to the growth of the currency deficit and, as a consequence, the weakening of the ruble.

Factor 3. Central Bank Policy. When giving a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018, it is imperative to consider the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as the main currency regulator in the country. Let's consider his main instruments of currency regulation, and how he applies them.

Discount rate. During 2017, the Central Bank lowered it 6 times, and in general lowered it by 25% - from 10% to 7.75%. The step of decreasing is small: 0.5-0.25 points, so this did not lead to significant currency fluctuations in the market.

Reducing the discount rate is a good trend for the economy, stimulating economic growth. However, economic growth, in turn, stimulates the growth of inflation, which means that a foreign currency, like any other commodity, can grow in price, and the value of the national currency, accordingly, can decrease.

In 2018, the discount rate may continue to decline, even weaker than in 2017. In my opinion, this factor will not have any significant impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Foreign exchange intervention. Here it is more interesting. By the end of 2017, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation through the Central Bank was increasingly actively buying currency on the Moscow Exchange. For example, in September and October it was bought for 76 billion rubles each month, in November - for 123 billion rubles, and in December - as much as 204 billion rubles. While in the first months of the year, such purchases were carried out for only 3-6 billion rubles per month.

Such an increased demand for the currency should have caused an increase in its value, and, therefore, a slight drop in the ruble exchange rate, but this did not happen, on the contrary, in the last months of 2017 the ruble was strengthening.

Moreover, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and representatives of other state financial institutions have repeatedly held the so-called. “Verbal interventions,” stating that by the end of the year the dollar rate will surely rise, which pushed the population and institutional investors to buy up foreign currency. However, again, the growth of the dollar and other currencies did not occur, despite the increase in demand, the effect was the opposite.

This situation once again confirms that the forecasts of the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and other government agencies have the opposite effect. For example, when in 2014-2015, top officials repeatedly spoke about the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate, it continued to fall. Now, when they actively asserted that it would fall, on the contrary, it strengthened a little.

All this suggests that the forecasts of the ruble exchange rate they voiced have little in common with the real forecasts, which, I suspect, they also calculate.

Factor 4. Presidential elections. In the forecast for the dollar exchange rate in Russia for 2018, one cannot ignore the presidential elections to be held in March. In recent years, the economic situation in the country has deteriorated significantly. It is logical that on the eve of the elections, the current president needs to demonstrate some improvement in the situation, some positive dynamics, which will add weight and support to him.

One of the factors of this improvement, which is always well received by the population, is the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and other currencies. “Here you are, the ruble is getting stronger - it means that it is getting better, we are pursuing the right policy” - this message can be seen among others.

I believe that before the elections, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, if necessary, will in every possible way restrain the fall of the ruble and even, on the contrary, try to strengthen it, for example, by the same interventions. And for some time after the elections - also, so that there is no clear “border” of the trend change that coincides with the elections. But further, somewhere from the middle of summer, autumn, this containment will most likely be gone, since there will be practically no resources left for this.

Factor 5. Economic indicators. The final macroeconomic indicators have not yet been published, but according to preliminary data, it is clear that the Russian economy is in a state of stagnation. GDP growth is less than planned, in the region of 2% per year. In the absence of global economic reforms, there is no need to expect any improvements in 2018; I do not know anything about the plans for such reforms.

Inflation will be from 2.5 to 3%, however, its decline is more likely associated not with the stabilization of the economy, but with a complete fall in the purchasing power of the population (in 2017 it decreases by 1-2% in comparison with 2016, and all previous years fell even more). In 2018, the Central Bank itself predicts a slight increase in inflation in comparison with 2017.

Separately, I would like to note the closure of the reserve fund and the reduction at the end of the year from 71.87 to 65.15 billion dollars. This suggests that financial reserves are being depleted more and more, and if necessary, there will soon be nothing to use.

Personally, I do not see and do not expect any significant positive changes in the economy that could have a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate, and in comparison with the above factors, I think this is not so significant.

Ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018: technical analysis.

Now that we have reviewed the main global factors that will affect the ruble exchange rate in 2018, let's conduct a technical analysis to determine when and what the price movement may be.

Attention to the chart:

In the last year, the ruble exchange rate has been clamped at, symbolizing a figure of uncertainty. It is indicated by blue lines on the chart. If the figure “works”, it means at what moment a breakout will occur, and the rate will exit the triangle in one of the directions, at least by the value of the initial height of the triangle.

In my opinion, breaking the triangle down, which would mean the strengthening of the ruble somewhere up to 51 rubles per dollar, is unlikely, there are a lot of negative fundamental factors. Therefore, such a breakout is more likely to occur upwards after the rate fluctuates for some time inside the triangle.

At the top, I marked with blue lines the most significant nearest ones, on which the course will most likely be delayed - these are 62, 63.5, 65, 66.5. If the level of 66.5 is broken, the dollar / ruble rate may rise much more significantly - the next significant levels are from 75 and above.

Forecast of the dollar in Russia for 2018: conclusions.

Summing up the forecast of the ruble exchange rate - 2018, I can draw the following conclusions:

In general, the fundamental factors indicate that the ruble exchange rate will fall.
There is a serious factor that currently restrains this decline - a strong rise in oil prices.
As long as oil prices continue to rise and remain high, the ruble exchange rate will change slightly, and a strong strengthening is unlikely.
If the oil trend changes to fall, the ruble will begin to fall.
The greatest dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and other currencies can be expected from the second half of 2018, in the first half it is likely to be weak.
The most realistic scenario is the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate throughout the year in the range of 60-70 with a tendency to rise in price.
With a significant strengthening of some negative factors, the dollar rate may rise to higher levels, and vice versa, if the fundamental situation improves, the ruble rate may fall weaker, or continue to fluctuate in the current range until the end of the year.

I got this forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018. As always, I am ready for constructive dialogue in the comments. Also, you can always study other forecasts of experts and analysts, both famous and not so famous. The main thing is to remember that only you yourself are responsible for your financial decisions.

Join the number of regular site visitors and improve your financial literacy to better understand economic processes and more effectively manage personal finances. Until next time on the site!

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Comments on record: 69

Hello again! I don't even know where to start) I only read the beginning of the article, I really liked your warning about what is dangerous
listen to other people's opinions when it comes to finances), I remember telling you about this last year that people should be warned. Last year, I think you shouldn't write anything, you yourself see everything who was right and who was not. The dollar has not gone anywhere, oil is under 70, that is, exactly as I wrote a year ago.
I will not write anything on the article itself, I have not read it yet, but later I think I will write it off.

Hello, you are right there). In my opinion, you are solely engaged in tracking this topic, well, by the way, this is your business. Of course, you will unsubscribe later, because only for this you come here, but I immediately warn you traditionally: the slightest manifestation of disrespect, and your comment will not be. Therefore, re-read very well before sending 🙂
Last year I did not write that the dollar "will fly away somewhere." I will quote: “the forecast of the ruble exchange rate - 2017 at the moment can be described in one word:“ uncertainty ”. Conclusions: 1. Uncertainty. 2. The dollar is up rather than down. " And the word "uncertainty" was repeated in the article many times. Actually, this is what happened - nothing happened, no special movements up or down. Uncertainty was and remained at the end of the year.

Again, I see the comment was deleted, but oh well, it was addressed specifically to you, others do not need to read it.

Let's go for oil)
The fact that oil has risen in price 1.5 times as you write, and the ruble exchange rate remained at the same level, in no way can mean what you wrote, it says only one thing - the purchase of surplus currency, for example: the Ministry of Finance will buy foreign currency in the domestic market by 257.1 billion rubles in January 2018. Not weak, huh? I thought I wrote last year that they will keep the course by any means, since the further strengthening of the ruble will hit competitiveness hard.
of our manufacturers in the global market.
Concerning the supply and demand of oil. There is still a surplus, but it is not at all significant, it is worth looking at how much it has decreased in a year, the picture changes immediately. If this continues, then in 3-5 years we will not have an oversupply, but a deficit. Consumption is growing rapidly around the world, for example: China's oil imports totaled 34 million metric tons in December. As a result, imports for 2017 were up 10.1% to a record 420 million metric tons + a significant reduction in US inventories.
Regarding OPEC, did not understand at all what kind of extension we are talking about? As far as I know, it was extended until the end of 2018.
Why did you decide that production in the United States will increase enough to put serious pressure on world prices? On the contrary, the number of drilling rigs has decreased in recent years and it is too early to talk about increasing production.
What does Alaska have to do with it? I don’t understand at all how this can affect oil this year. Do you even know how long it takes to develop deposits?

Personally, I think that oil will continue to grow this year too, to what price it will rise is difficult to say, but there can be no talk of a fall.

Hello, I am writing from the phone there may be blots. Michael, state your version for 2018. And more specifics. Things like you write must be supported by facts. Leave your emotions to women. Sincerely.

Or maybe you first write something on the topic yourself, before demanding it from others? So far, I have only written about oil, and I have explained my position in sufficient detail and in detail, even more in detail than it is written in the article. I don't owe you anything, so be content with what I write. About emotions I did not understand at all, what emotions should I leave to women?

Emotions should not be nodded towards women. You men have even worse emotions.

Sanctions.
The only thing I agree with is that the sanctions have practically no pressure on the course.

You write that tougher sanctions will negatively affect trade? In 2017, there was also a repeated tightening of sanctions, but foreign trade turnover increased by $ 95 billion compared to 2016, while there is no data for the whole year, I can only compare it to November.

Why write about the pitiful millions that were withdrawn from the stock market I don't understand at all, they introduced them last year, they took them out, next year they will invest again. Moreover, write that this is a serious outflow. These are such insignificant amounts that it is even difficult to name them - “A drop in the ocean”, it is much less. And based on this, you decided that there is an outflow of investments from the country? I just have no words.

GDP. What's wrong with GDP? It grew by almost 2% and no sanctions could hinder growth.

Inflation growth. Even I did not think about such low inflation rates. Here, too, the sanctions did not exert any pressure.

Everything happened exactly as I wrote a year ago)

Conclusion: the sanctions both last and this year will not be able to exert serious pressure on the course.

Central Bank policy.
Discount rate. Let's start with what to write correctly - the key rate, not the discount rate) From all that has been written, it is only true that a decrease in the key rate is a positive for the ruble. How did you decide that economic growth will stimulate inflation and even more currency growth? It largely depends on what this economic growth will be based on, it can, on the contrary, strengthen the ruble if this growth is due to exports, and our exports have grown more than imports over the past year.
Foreign exchange intervention. It's ... I just have no words. What is the increased demand for currency, what are you talking about? They're buying up the surplus! And by the end of the year, purchases increased due to the rise in oil prices, as there was a lot of surplus! It is being bought for only one reason - to keep the exchange rate, to prevent the ruble from strengthening. If they hadn't done this, you would have remained Konstantin without "pants", since the rate would have been 52-54) But such a rate is not profitable for our economy, therefore they are buying. And as I wrote above, the Ministry of Finance will buy foreign currency on the domestic market for 257.1 billion rubles in January 2018, that is, more than $ 4 billion. This is a serious amount for 1 month and all the surplus! What kind of currency deficit can we generally talk about in this situation?
Regarding the "forecasts" of the Ministry of Finance, there is nothing surprising) Last year I also remember writing that this divorce was for people to buy up currency.

Spelling mistakes, Michael, make it difficult to understand your thoughts.

Presidential elections.
There is nothing special to add, of course they will try to make people feel the improvement, but whether it really is, or not, and due to what or who was done, this is a separate topic.

Economic indicators.
GDP, inflation, there are numbers, there is nothing special to add. The reserve fund was not closed, but merged with the NWF, these are completely different things. The Reserve Fund currently has a balance of 1 trillion, which should be transferred to the NWF.
As before, I do not see any critical changes in the NWF that would give prerequisites for its depletion.

Well, now actually my forecast) The course will be in the range of 55-65, of course above 63 is generally unlikely, but I leave a small margin)
I will write out a little, although a lot has already been written above, I will repeat everything exactly.

1. Oil prices. Oil will rise in price, of course, rollbacks are possible during the year, but one way or another it will grow, you can read more above. Consequently, the inflow of currency will grow along with oil, thereby creating a surplus, which by itself will work to strengthen the ruble.

2. The volume of foreign trade. The general figures for the year have not yet been published, but we can say with confidence that the volumes have grown by about 25% over the year, I can tell you just a huge growth, while exports are growing more than imports. Accordingly, the balance increases, and, consequently, the surplus of currency. Perhaps this year we will not see such an increase, but even less will there be a fall. Any increase in volumes, even if not very significant, will be positive for the ruble.

3. The economic indicators are slowly growing, this year the growth will be about the same, so one should not expect a serious weakening of the ruble.

While everything indicates that it will be very difficult for the dollar to rise above 60, a number of changes may occur during the year that will help it go beyond this mark, or may not. To be honest, the chance to break through 55 seems more real to me than to break through 65)

I want to warn everyone that this is all my personal opinion and reasoning, you should not invest money based only on my forecast, I just provided the analyst and my conclusions. Although my predictions were very accurate for 2 years in a row and fully reflected the picture of what was happening after, this does not mean that I cannot be wrong. You risk your money and think with your own head!

If you have any questions, write)

Question: why, given all the positive or neutral factors that you described, do you predict a depreciation of the ruble?

Konstantin, I'm talking about what I spoke about last year - don't expect a strong weakening of the ruble. If 5-10% is cheaper for you, which in principle can be equal to inflation, then let it be cheaper)

Michael, this is all great. So you write all the time “and I said ...”, “but isn't that what I told you ...”, “and I turned out to be right ...”. And under the previous article on this topic you wrote the same thing about an article two years ago. But since you are so fond of repeating this, then your words in the first commentary to the forecast for 2017: “The dollar exchange rate at the end of 2017 is no more than 70.”. Yes, you are really right !!! He's no more than 70! And you can also write “no more than 100” or “above 40”. And in the next comment, you wrote “For a perfect balance, we need the 65 rate now, with a gradual increase to the 70 area”. The course, which “we need for a perfect balance,” as you can see, did not work out, and during the year it was never even done. Even though “you said ...”. And the most interesting thing is that we predicted the same in the direction of travel. I wrote that it will most likely grow weakly, and you too, even you put higher numbers - so I gave them. Why don't you write now “But I told you that it will be less than 70, and it will be less than 70?”)

Write your numbers for 2018, describe the behavior of the ruble exchange rate so that it does not coincide with my description (in 2017 it coincided, oddly enough!), And so that in 2019 you also have something to write about “and I said … ”. Because these are the main keywords in everything you write 🙂

Already written at the same time, great. This is what I wanted to hear.

Last year, you just distracted me a little from the topic. Why are you not satisfied with my forecast? I let people know that there would be no strong dollar growth! Isn't that what everyone hoped for, who bought under 70? As a result, there is no growth. Therefore, I did not even bother for the minimum threshold. In principle, I did not have a goal to designate it. For oil, for example, my forecast was generally ideal, I wrote that it would rise in price to 70, the price of oil is now 69.8, I think there is nowhere more precisely.
All my forecasts were in a fairly narrow range from the values \u200b\u200bat that time, if we assume that this forecast for a whole year was the most accurate of all that was written there, including more accurate than yours. Therefore, I consider your claims unjustified.
Your forecast was generally uncertain and most likely upward, I’m not talking about oil at all, you wrote that the price will fall) Regarding the balance, we still need a 60+ rate, but due to serious surpluses of currency they are simply not able to . I wrote that they will try to weaken the ruble, isn't that what they have been doing all year, buying up surplus currency?

I wrote about your first two comments. First (!). In them I certainly did not “distract” you from the topic :-). Perhaps all your forecasts were somewhere in a narrow range, but here they were for the dollar (namely, this is the topic of the forecast, not oil or something else) “less than 70, with a gradual increase to the area of \u200b\u200b70”.). And what is “more accurate than mine” I don't understand at all). This is no less vague than mine. I'm not making any claims, just observations. This time you wrote more specifically, which suits me more).

If possible, insert a quote and completely, otherwise the meaning is completely different, you just redo what I have written. I wrote somewhere that the course will be 70? I never received a single specific statement about the growth of the rate to 70. I wrote that the rate at the end of the year is not more than 70, making it clear to people that they do not strongly hope to return the money invested, how can I convey this information to you ? And if you mean it:
“And proceeding from the fact that we need to raise production, the state will do its best to help export. For a perfect balance, we need a rate of 65 now, with a gradual increase in the area of \u200b\u200b70. " So he is still needed now, but so far it does not work out and there is no statement that he will be 70 here either. The Ministry of Finance has already poured 800+ billion to buy out the surplus, and I believe that this is not weak support, since the surpluses are very large, so far it has not been possible to pull above 60. Although you claim that we have a currency deficit)
I will repeat it again! I have never written that the dollar will grow strongly in 2017, especially in the region of 70, on the contrary, I replied that you will not see this figure very soon, here, for example, is the answer:
“Marina, I apologize for the long answer, there were many cases. I think the 68 course will not be until the end of 2017, and perhaps only in 2018, so you just have to wait. ”
Here I was asked specifically about the rate of 68. It was a year ago, that is, I made it clear to the person that there is no need to hope that such a rate will not be in the near future, that is, there will be no weakening of the ruble, so it is not, about what do you even say?
There are two options, either you are trying to "spite" me on purpose, or you are very inattentive when reading.
Konstantin, you'd better follow yourself, there is nothing at all that you have written that even closely reflects what is really happening now.

"To spite on purpose", "they watched over themselves."

Here you are really hooked on this, because there is nothing more to complain about. And you are trying to expose something completely different from what I had in mind, what is it generally called?
Let's go over everything else that I wrote a year ago.
1.Oil will gradually rise in price to 70
2. The sanctions have not put pressure on the rate for a long time and their extension will not greatly affect the rate.
3. I can say with complete confidence that GDP in 2017 will not be in the red, perhaps the plus will not be significant, but you should definitely not expect a fall.
4. Do you remember I told you that everything will change in foreign trade and the balance will grow by the end of the year and even be more than in 2015? But you vehemently denied it! Well, here's the balance: November 2015 - 10107.7, November 2016 - 10405.7. December 2015 - 12662.9, December 2016 - 13217.7.
Well, this year the growth will be very significant compared to 2016, especially the first half of the year.

Where of the above did I go wrong? That's right - nowhere! And how could I, in your opinion, say that the rate will be 70, if I myself wrote that there are a lot of constraining factors and only at the state level it is possible to somehow keep the rate and pull it up a little. Pulling it up a little, it does not mean that this will happen within a year or even two. I wrote that they would try not to let the exchange rate fall, as it would hit the economy, I wrote that they would gradually raise it to 65, and then to 70, but not a word that they would do it in one year. could write, as it may take a longer time and I understand that perfectly.
You just need to read carefully and everything will be clear right away.

🙂 Come on.
1. I have not argued otherwise.
2. I also did not claim otherwise.
3. And here I have not argued otherwise.
4. Of course I don’t remember, I have more than 11 thousand comments on the site! Why would I remember them all? I did not “categorically deny it”. You came up with). I specially reread all the comments, killing 10 minutes of time. I won't do it anymore, time is money. That is, even here, where you write “categorically denied,” this is absolutely not the case.

And then twist it again. Wow, because you are so calling for attentiveness ... I did not say that “you said that the course will be 70”. So you love to cling to words, but you read it completely inattentively. I wrote that you stated that the rate would be NO MORE than 70, and you were absolutely right, which is not surprising at all!) Just as if you had written that it would be below 100 or above 40.

This concludes the dispute on this topic, I will not publish more comments that flow from empty to empty - they are not interesting to anyone except you :-).

What is this currency forecast for 2018? This is not a forecast, but just a set of different factors and those analysis without specifics. Maybe so, maybe this way. You will decide up or down.

Perhaps so, but the course will really depend on these factors, and how they will develop is difficult to predict, I do not want to poke my finger in the sky. I decided: the ruble is down, the currency is up (this is indicated in the conclusions), and I also set out my vision for each factor.

will grow in relation to 56-57?, that is, by the end of the year it will be higher - where you have blue marked levels 62-63.5? This is why questions arise.

Firstly, the range of 10 rubles is for a minute equal to the range of fluctuations in Euro in 1000 points! Is the forecast spread too wide?
You can give the same “forecast” as you give. Here is an example - “I predict a ruble range for 2018 of 50-60 rubles”

In general, I do not believe in growth in USD / RUB. Let's see how it really will be this year.
Thanks for the article.

Alexander, for the forecast for the whole year, provided that the previous years were not so “stormy” the range of 10 rubles is normal. Or do you think it is better to be like many “analysts” who try to give an accurate forecast, and then turn over 10 times a year?
Otherwise, I completely agree with you, I do not believe in a strong weakening of the ruble. And the fact that the article is not about anything, I also agree)

Hello Konstantin! I am from Kazakhstan, your forecasts are always accurate, at least until today, it was so! We all often talk about the collapse of $, is it possible? Since we do not know in what currency to keep savings, so as not to lose ... if you answer, I will be grateful ... Thank you ..

Hello Eileen. The situation in Kazakhstan seems to me poorly, but I do not adhere to the theory of the collapse of the dollar. I once wrote on this topic separately:

Last year I was happy to read the article and comments of Mikhail and Konstantin) Sometimes it happens that reading discussions is no less useful than articles. Thanks you!
Kostantin, do not delete Mikhail's comments, please)
Michael, be more restrained (although I am for freedom of speech)), and we will have more interesting comments to read!)

I do not publish only what does not comply with the rules of commenting.

I think the forecast for the written oil will be $ 40-44 it will be hard for the ruble + a mistake in the elections President Putin will increase the sanctions within a year finishes the ruble. Only after the withdrawal of military equipment from Ukraine will a gradual strengthening of the ruble begin

i don't understand what's the point in forecasting 55-65
let's say a person has rubles and he wants to buy dollars so as not to fly in ... or hand over the dollars and put rubles at interest ... or just rubles at interest ...
the essence is the same ... with the corridors written here, people who want to increase their capital will be at a loss.
after all, if the dollar rises in price, for example, then the current deposit rate in rubles will not return you the amount in dollars ... and vice versa ...

Firstly, the forecast is given here for a whole year, and not for a short period, hence such a range! Secondly, no one here even thought to give investment advice, there is only general information on the annual movement, and where and in what currency you should invest is your own business.

Mikhail plus for the forecast. Thank. Although everything is clear. It's a shame that with the increase in oil prices, the ruble did not react (remained the same), which means it fell. And God forbid oil prices will also fall, then the ruble will also fall sharply ... ..So invest your savings in the yuan, or buy syndicates in China. We will definitely not lose here.

Thank you) The ruble did not actually fall! The ruble would have reacted with a serious strengthening to the growth of oil if the Ministry of Finance had not bought up billions of currency to support the exchange rate. If suddenly oil starts to fall strongly and the ruble weakens, then the Ministry of Finance will throw these purchased surpluses on the market and prevent the ruble from falling significantly. The Ministry of Finance has serious amounts at its disposal; they can change the value of currencies in one direction or another.

Good day! Konstantin please comment on the situation with the ruble on 04/12/2018, the connection with the Syrian events, if you convert into dollars or gold, your opinion is very important now ... Because there is a feeling of a critical situation!

Hello, Elena. The Syrian events, like the recent sanctions against the oligarchs, had a very negative impact on the ruble and the Russian economy in general. But personally, I do not yet see a supercritical situation, it is happening as I predicted: the ruble exchange rate has moved away from unreasonably high values \u200b\u200band returned to its real range of 60-70. He did it, however, rather abruptly, due to the confluence of these two important fundamental factors, despite the increased oil price. As for the Syrian events, it all depends on what happens next. And it is difficult for me to assume this with high accuracy - I do not know what is in the heads of the heads of state. Now the situation is really tense, and this is reflected in the ruble exchange rate and the oil price.
If you look at the technical analysis, then a “triple bottom” pattern has formed on the weekly chart, and if it works, the rate will move higher to around 66-67.

These sanctions are far from the toughest, so all these jumps are of a short-term nature with a gradual rollback to the region of 60, and possibly even lower. There are a whole bunch of factors that provide support for the ruble, so I would not hope for a rate of 66-67, as Konstantin writes. Of course, everything can change, but so far the reality is.

Now, with the ruble, what I described a year ago is happening. Everything is exactly as I wrote)

What's happening now:
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation directs additional oil and gas revenues to purchase foreign currency, obtained due to the higher oil price compared to the budget.
At the end of 2017, the Ministry of Finance purchased currencies for 829 billion rubles. During 2018, the Ministry of Finance can buy foreign currency for about 2 trillion rubles. at oil prices of $ 54–55 per barrel, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov estimated at the end of December. At $ 60 per barrel, the volume of foreign currency purchases will amount to 2.8 trillion rubles. And at 75-80?
If not for the purchase of the Ministry of Finance, the rate would now be 50-55. And not sanctions, not everything that Konstantin loves to write about could not radically affect the weakening of the ruble.
It's too early to talk about the 65-70 rate, I think that such a rate will not be this year, but 60-65 is quite real, although there is a high probability of going back - below 60, it all depends on the ratio of planned purchases of foreign currency and the cost of oil.

Hello dear analysts!
You, Konstantin and Mikhail, have got an interesting couple of opinions that “make” this thread)))
In general, I am a person - far from stock market analyzes, especially independent ones. Therefore, I am interested in a competent opinion.
The question of the currency price is selfishly relevant for me. Probably now twirl your finger at your temple, but, as a person of traditional views, a provincial without a commercial streak, in order to save money, at the end of the year I bought dollars and euros for a decent amount for me. I took dollars just below 58. The goal is to preserve savings (well, at least I didn't buy bitcoin at 12)))).
At the peak of the jump, the dollars could not be sold, since I was leaving.
What do you think, is it worth selling now, tomorrow, for example, while a little above 60?
I remember about my own responsibility when making a decision, but I need advice))) And what to store, maybe, really, in yuan?
Ohokhonyushkii ... Well, the country, as far as I can remember, is like a powder keg.

Hello, Elena. My opinion is not to sell. 🙂

Hello, Elena. It's hard to advise anything, I personally keep everything in rubles. The risk when buying dollars is very high, there are many factors that put pressure on the strengthening of the ruble. Now, for example, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran and the introduction of sanctions against this country will greatly affect the cost of oil, it will rise in price. And if the price of oil goes up, the inflow of dollars into the country will increase accordingly. The Ministry of Finance is now buying up billions of currency, only this does not allow the ruble to go below 60, if the Ministry of Finance reduces the purchase of currency, the ruble will inevitably begin to strengthen. If, for example, oil rises in price to $ 85, then most likely the ruble will inevitably begin to strengthen. If you are lucky and the value of the dollar remains at the same damage, then you will receive about 5-7% per year, which, in principle, can be comparable to inflation for this year, in the best case, you will save your money and possibly earn a little. But there is also a high probability of losing, because if the dollar rolls back to 58 you will lose% of inflation, and if it is below 58, then the losses will be much more serious, while you will be constantly nervous. Putting rubles in% you will get the same 7-8%, while you will feel more relaxed,% will compensate you for inflation and a little more will remain. In the current situation, the ruble will not go above 65, but it can easily roll back to 58, cardinal changes may occur within a year, but so far the picture is as follows.

Konstantin, especially for you, because you have been persistently writing for several years that the NWF is about to be exhausted, but this never happened. And here it turns out that it is not only not empty, but has grown by 23.2%, in fact, what I was talking about.
The National Wealth Fund (NWF) in June 2018 grew by 23.2% and amounted to 4 trillion 839.26 billion rubles, which is equivalent to $ 77.11 billion, the last time we had such an amount in $ back in 2014. Do you still believe in SWF depletion?

Http: //forum..html
Everything happens with the ruble as I wrote in this forecast: the first jump took place after the presidential elections, the second (now) is taking place due to the strengthening of sanctions, and according to technical analysis, a very clear figure was obtained that predicts this jump (monthly chart, figure “ flag ”- the screen was attached on the forum), which worked. There are fundamental reasons for the growth, technical ones too, the current leap, according to the rules of technical analysis, should raise the dollar rate to the region of 69.

So far, my prediction is coming true as never before (hello to Mikhail)).

Further, everything depends on the news background. It is likely that a certain correction will follow, a rollback of the rate back. This will be a favorable moment for those who want to buy dollars, euros. After that - growth again, perhaps more systematic. By the end of the year, I expect the rate to be at least around 70. Perhaps more, and perhaps less. It all depends on the current situation. For example, with the same sanctions: will there be a second, more “terrible” wave, which is expected in 90 days. How the Central Bank will behave, what will happen to oil, and so on.

“While my forecast is coming true as never before”
The key word here is never) As far as I remember, your predictions never came true, but here you might be lucky to guess, according to the theory of probability, sooner or later, you would be right. At the beginning of the year, not you, not me, could not know about future sanctions, in that situation the rate could not go above 65, if you pay attention, the growth was only due to sanctions. I would also like to draw your attention to the fact that last year and this year I wrote that they would try to weaken the ruble, but on their own they would not be able to raise the exchange rate above 65 this year, sanctions helped)
Now it is very difficult to predict anything, it all depends on the actions of the Ministry of Finance, if they stop buying currency for a long time, then we will see a serious rollback, if they continue to buy in full volume, then it will be more difficult for the ruble to strengthen. We must not forget that August is considered the most difficult month for the ruble, then the exchange rate will stabilize. The sanctions sounded in the future are quite serious, but it is not known whether they will be applied in full or even applied.
I must agree that today your forecast looks realistic, let's see what happens next.

Oh, well, straight). Quite to themselves come true. And now it is especially accurate. Naturally, I assumed about the sanctions: foreign policy does not change, which means that the sanctions, as they have become tougher, will continue to be toughened.

But I am not writing this in order to show myself as a "cool analyst who can be trusted and followed unconditionally." Rather - just personally for you)).

The fact that no one doubted the sanctions, the point is which restrictions will be applied, and no one could have known about this at that time. The sanctions could be both softer and tougher than those that were introduced, I meant that. I do not exclude the possibility that the rate may fly above 70, but there is also a high probability of a rollback (this happened more than once) Let's see what happens next, another 3 months ahead.

Let's see, of course. So far, it turns out an average annual range of 60-70 with an upward trend (as I have written). Moreover, it may go over 70 by the end of the year or not by the end. The toughest sanctions are still planned for November, but already on the eve of them, the rate went up.

Still, the ruble has more chances to fall against Russia, the Americans have already started an open economic war here and can put pressure on the Saudis to drop oil prices and start disconnecting from payments in dollars and other obstacles, and even we need to take into account the small competence of our leadership, I'm not saying that all sorts of provocations on the military fronts of Ukraine and Syria.

The Central Bank refused to buy foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance until the end of December, oil is under 80. The only counterbalance to the strengthening of the ruble is future sanctions, but many doubt that the previously announced restrictions will be adopted, most likely they will be softer. We expect the ruble to strengthen in the near future.

Keep in mind that the exchange rates set by the central bank do not change on weekends! In the table below you can see the dollar and euro exchange rates for today, tomorrow and a week ahead. If you are interested in the further fate of currencies, follow the news and keep track of quotes updates.

	Dollar rate	Euro exchange rate	Ruble's exchange rate
There will be an official course for 05/14/2019 (we will find out through 1 day 15 hours)	?	?	?
Current official exchange rate as of 05/09/2019 the most favorable rates in banks	65.2287 +1 kopeck	73.0888 +1 kopeck	practically unchanged
Register and trade on Forex without investment - you will receive your starting capital as a gift! If you trade successfully, the earned money can be taken away!
From the moment the last official rate was determined on 05/09/2019	dropped a little -7 kopecks	grew insignificantly +7 kopecks	practically unchanged (oil during this time: +1.11% )
In the last hour	without changes	without changes	without changes

InstaForex current exchange rate

Forecast of the dollar and euro for a month

Exchange Rate Forecast for May		Forecast of the dollar for a week and a month			Euro exchange rate forecast for a week and a month
the date	Day of week	Course	Max.	Min.	Course	Max.	Min.
02.05.2019	thursday	65.20	66.18	64.22	72.71	73.80	71.62
03.05.2019	friday	65.96	66.95	64.97	73.10	74.20	72.00
06.05.2019	monday	65.80	66.79	64.81	72.70	73.79	71.61

07.05.2019	tuesday	65.57	66.55	64.59	72.55	73.64	71.46
08.05.2019	wednesday	65.76	66.75	64.77	72.82	73.91	71.73
10.05.2019	friday	65.83	66.82	64.84	72.49	73.58	71.40
13.05.2019	monday	65.54	66.52	64.56	72.25	73.33	71.17
14.05.2019	tuesday	65.26	66.24	64.28	71.83	72.91	70.75
15.05.2019	wednesday	65.23	66.21	64.25	71.83	72.91	70.75
16.05.2019	thursday	65.01	65.99	64.03	71.84	72.92	70.76

17.05.2019	friday	65.34	66.32	64.36	72.09	73.17	71.01
20.05.2019	monday	64.72	65.69	63.75	71.47	72.54	70.40
21.05.2019	tuesday	64.73	65.70	63.76	71.50	72.57	70.43
22.05.2019	wednesday	64.28	65.24	63.32	71.30	72.37	70.23
23.05.2019	thursday	64.18	65.14	63.22	71.13	72.20	70.06
24.05.2019	friday	64.40	65.37	63.43	71.27	72.34	70.20
27.05.2019	monday	64.33	65.29	63.37	71.41	72.48	70.34
28.05.2019	tuesday	64.36	65.33	63.39	71.45	72.52	70.38
29.05.2019	wednesday	63.93	64.89	62.97	70.87	71.93	69.81
30.05.2019	thursday	64.73	65.70	63.76	71.70	72.78	70.62
31.05.2019	friday	64.79	65.76	63.82	71.61	72.68	70.54

What determines the dollar exchange rate, factors affecting exchange rates

If you are interested in buying or selling euros or dollars, the exchange rate is an important indicator for you every day. Today both monetary units are showing significant volatility. This is primarily due to political factors.

What affects the exchange rate of the US dollar and the euro:

decisions made by diplomats in the framework of international cooperation. Yesterday Angela Merkel announced her readiness to come to an agreement with Russia - the euro fell slightly against the ruble. Tomorrow Donald Trump will issue a new package of sanctions - the dollar will jump to the skies. Therefore, if you want to play on the currency exchange or make money buying / selling currency, you need to follow the political news;
economic situation in the country and in the world. Yes, even economic shifts within Russia affect the position of the ruble, respectively, and the exchange rate of foreign currencies against it;
decisions of the Central Bank. It is known that at the beginning of the aggravation of relations with Europe and the United States, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tried to balance the jumps in exchange rates against the ruble using its own resources. Today the volatility of the dollar and the euro has slightly decreased, and the system of containment of the Russian banking network played a significant role in this.

Previous rate predictions

We all remember the times when the dollar exchange rate did not exceed 35 rubles, and the euro was kept at 39-45 rubles. Unfortunately or fortunately, these rates have not appeared on the boards in banks and exchange offices for several years. Below is our forecast for currency rates a few days before the start of the rapid fall of the ruble. This information is presented just like that, as a keepsake ...

Dear visitors of the site "Forecast of the exchange rate for tomorrow", we draw your attention to the fact that the forecast of the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro is given only for informational purposes and cannot be regarded as a guide to action! We are not responsible for the accuracy of these forecasts, since exchange rates depend on a huge number of factors and even the most experienced trader, broker, financier (yes, in general, anyone) will not be able to predict the exchange rate for tomorrow, week or month with 100% accuracy!

- Expert of the portal "Papa Helped" on financial issues. The topic of the new article of our magazine is more relevant than ever - the relationship between the ruble and the dollar in the light of the current political and economic situation in Russia.

People love to make predictions and listen to them - this is a way to prepare for future changes and take the right direction in the present. It so happened that the economy of our country and the well-being of its population depend on the dollar exchange rate - the main reserve currency on the planet.

Predicting changes in the exchange rate of American money against the ruble is a thankless task, but necessary. A competent analysis of influencing factors will save you from losing finances and protect your money.

Looking ahead, I will say that my personal opinion is that the dollar in 2018-2019 will "walk" in the corridor between 64 and 76 rubles ... There is no need to wait for global changes.

We read the article to the end - a lot of interesting things are waiting for you!

In this article, you will find THREE possible scenarios regarding the price of the dollar and its future as a currency.

What will happen to the dollar in the near future - 3 options for the development of events

What to believe in an ordinary citizen? How to save your savings from inflation and increase the value of your assets? What predictions can you trust?

Perhaps, each of us has a friend who knows exactly what will happen to the country's economy and finances in the near future. And then there are media analysts who say the opposite. The question of whose opinion to choose becomes key.

Right now, forecasters are offering a choice of as many as three options for the development of events relative to the dollar. Let's consider them in detail.

The occurrence of these options has different probabilities, but none of them should be ruled out.

Option 1. The dollar will rise to 90 rubles

Over the past year, the ruble has fallen by 20%. A scenario in which the same will happen next year is quite likely. No one is going to lift the sanctions, but on the contrary, they are being tightened even more.

The sanctions are drowning the ruble, but it is still alive. Russia believes in the best!

Relations with Ukraine are not improving, and prices for oil, gas and other natural energy sources are not growing significantly. State budget of the Russian Federation 70% consists of revenue from minerals... As soon as the oil price falls by at least a fraction of a percent, this will inevitably affect the position of the ruble.

Another significant point is the outflow of capital from the Russian economy. According to statistics, the churn is more than10 billion rubles per month . Foreign investors are leaving, and people who have substantial funds prefer to keep their savings in foreign banks. GDP is also not growing, which means that it is becoming more and more difficult to maintain the national currency by production.

Option 2. The dollar will fall below 50 rubles

This point of view is shared by a small group of experts. This is not about patriotism: the adherents of this scenario believe that the Russian financial system has sufficient reserves. And it will be enough not only to stabilize the exchange rate, but also to gradually increase the ruble against the dollar.

The increase in the Central Bank rate is an indirect factor in favor of the strengthening of the dollar. Experts who are sharp in their forecasts do not promise a too sharp rise in the ruble, but they also do not believe in its fall, especially in the first half of 2019.

According to their calculations, the cost $$ will fluctuate in the range 63-66 rubles for one "green president".

Option 3. The dollar will "walk in the corridor" between 60 and 80 rubles

This is the most sober and reasonable scenario. Its adherents believe that nothing extraordinary will happen to the quotes. The trend of a slow decline in the value of the ruble will continue, but no major shocks are expected in 2019.

Which prediction to believe is the question. According to the government, ordinary citizens have nothing to fear. In Russia, local producers have gradually awakened from hibernation, and the tightening of sanctions will not in any way affect the domestic economic situation. Maybe so, who knows ...

But the population is afraid of such a forecast. However, he does not see a reason to urgently buy dollars, despite the current political situation.

Below I am clearly showing which factors will lead to each of the three options described above.

Forecast comparison table:

In Russia, the exchange rate depends not only on the economy, but also on politics. The more difficult it is to make financial forecasts even for the next few months. Even the Hydrometeorological Center often makes mistakes in forecasting the weather, what to expect from forecasters of the exchange rate, which is even more changeable than the weather.

Whatever one may say, but we are still dependent on oil ...

And yet, chiit is necessary to study and analyze currency forecasts, and for the following reasons:

you will know whether it is worth investing in dollars in the near future or whether it is better to keep assets in national currency;
save your capital in case of a sharp drop in the RUR rate;
earn on quotes;
you will have time to exchange one money for another at a favorable rate before everyone else does it.

The current ratio of the ruble / dollar pair is a kind of indicator indicating what changes and what kind of life awaits us in the near future. But it is extremely difficult to predict currency quotes when you do not know all the plans of the US and Russian governments.

Illustrative example

While I was preparing this article, a key event occurred in the financial policy of Russia: The central bank raised the key rate for the first time since 2014... The reason for this decision is to reduce the risks of inflation, to prevent a sharp collapse of the ruble. The strengthening of the ruble currency should stop the growth of the dollar in 2018-2019. But there are many other factors that can significantly affect the expectations of the central bank.

Dollar forecast - what Russian and foreign economists are talking about

Now let's turn to specific specialists. I will warn you right away that the opinions given below should not be considered as a guide to action. They are given for informational purposes to show the most typical trends among analysts and economic forecasters.

Alpari analysts

Experts from the analytical center of the Alpari company believe that the rate hike will prevent the ruble from sliding further down. In addition, there is a tendency towards an increase in oil prices. If the indicator stays above 80$ per barrel, there is a possibility of stabilization of the national currency.

Analysts believe that now the only factor negatively affecting the ruble is the geopolitical background. The "real" exchange rate (economically determined) is now approximately 63 rubles .

Minister of Economic Development M. Oreshkin

The representative of the Russian government is no less optimistic and predicts at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 the value of the dollar within 63-64 rubles ... Maxim Oreshkin said that he sees no reason for the growth of quotations.

In his opinion, there are three factors that play “for” the ruble:

the expected embargo against Iran;
reduction in oil production in a number of OPEC states;
explosion of the Iraqi gas pipeline.

However, volatility (fluctuations in the exchange rate) will be significant. For the ordinary population, this means that you should not give in to panic and transfer savings from one currency to another, especially when you do it repeatedly. Only those who have experience working on the stock exchange should engage in speculation.

Where to see the dollar chart online in real time

The best option is to look at charts on the official websites of Russian banks or large trading resources such as Finam or BCS.

However, there are a lot of portals on financial topics that publish a chart of the movement of quotes in real time - any brokers or exchanges provide such a service to everyone.

It is also very convenient to see the dollar chart for different periods on Investing.com

Dollar chart from Investing.com

The law banning the dollar in the Russian Federation - rumor or truth

The introduction of new sanctions on the Russian financial system could jeopardize the dollar savings of the population. However, the Central Bank, the government and commercial banks (in particular, VTB) intend to protect the deposits of ordinary citizens.

If the US government prohibits the use of the US national currency by Russian banks, depositors will return their savings in other money. Which ones are still unknown. VTB CEO A. Kostin is confident that the Russian banking system will be able to cope with the consequences of such sanctions. Moreover, he doubts that such measures will be taken at all.

A complete independent departure from the use of the dollar in the Russian economic and financial system requires measures at the state level. This is exactly what the professor of the Russian Higher School of Economics A. Abramov thinks. In an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, he said that “de-dollarization” is not a bad idea in itself and should exclude periodic devaluations of the ruble, which now occur every 7-8 years.

To avoid this, it is necessary to change the one-sided structure of the domestic economy, which constantly depends on the price of natural resources. People will believe in the ruble if the government is able to "decouple the country's economy from oil prices."

What does the future hold for the dollar? Will oil be sold for rubles? What do you think?

Nevertheless, already now, settlements between the Russian Federation and its closest neighbors (the countries of the former USSR) are carried out mainly in rubles. Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev believes that if this trend continues and continues to progress, then in 2 years it will be possible to seriously think about the de-dollarization of Russia. But in the coming months, such an undertaking is not feasible, which means that the law banning the dollar in Russia is still nothing more than rumors.

Frequently asked questions about the dollar exchange rate and its future

And now the answers to the most pressing questions of our readers about the fate of the ruble and the dollar in the foreseeable future.

If you do not find the answer to your question, ask it in the comments.

These are the most popular questions about the dollar from all over the Russian Internet. Maybe yours is among them?

Question 1. When will the dollar fall? Vladimir, 32 years old, Moscow

Partially there is an answer to this question above: when the price of oil rises or the Russian economy ceases to depend on fluctuations in the cost of raw materials. This is unlikely to happen in the near future.

Question 2. Is it worth believing the news about the dollar, and if so, how? Ekaterina, 42 years old, Voronezh

It is impossible to unconditionally believe all the news, rumors, forecasts and speculations in any case. Even the assurances of the government should not be 100% trusted. However, people of the older generation know this anyway.

Question 3. What dynamics of the dollar is likely to await us in 2018-2019? Oleg, 29 years old, Stavropol

As I said, volatility (rate fluctuation) will definitely be present in the next 6 months. But in which direction the graph will move - decrease or increase - no one knows.

Maxim Oreshkin, already mentioned by us, advises Russians to get rid of dollars and buy rubles. His prediction is decrease in the value of the American currency to 63 rubles ... Another question: even if something like this happens, where are the guarantees that the next jump will not bring quotes back to the previous level?

Question 4. Will the dollar rise or fall next year? Victor, 35 years old, Kazan

Professional experts working in the largest companies in Russia and the world have in their arsenal huge amounts of information and the most modern software for calculating the probabilities of events based on statistics, exchange fluctuations and other influencing factors. But even they regularly make mistakes in their predictions.

In calm economic periods, their forecasts are more reliable, but few people need them. But with the onset of unstable times, economic analyzes are becoming less reliable. This is because no one can take into account all the diversity of life in their forecasts.

In other words, there is no exact answer to this question. No one really knows what will happen to the national currency in the coming months.

Question 5. Is it worth buying dollars now to make money on its growth in the future? Igor, 37 years old, Tambov

This is the key question. People are not as interested in political intrigue as in their own savings. If the savings are constantly kept in rubles, inflation will destroy the profit on the deposit. Foreign currency deposits are more promising in terms of preserving and increasing funds. But not always.

Therefore, experts advise balancing risks and distributing assets across three major currencies at once. If you keep money in rubles, dollars and euros in a 40/30/30 ratio, the probability of losing funds will be minimal.

Question 6. I do not understand what is happening with the dollar, why is its rate jumping so much? Lyudmila, 27 years old, Simferopol

It is not the dollar that is jumping, but the ruble against the dollar. By itself, the value of the dollar remains at about the same level. This does not mean that American money is not subject to inflation and other processes inherent in any currency. It's just that this is not happening as abruptly as in the case of our domestic currency.

Question 8. Like many people, I recently asked myself a question - when will the dollar collapse, because the US national debt has crossed all permissible limits for a long time, and if this happens, what will happen to the world economy? Nikolay, 54 years old, Vladivostok

Yes, the US national debt has already exceeded the country's GDP, and the US government solves all financial problems in the simplest way - it turns on the printing press. The system is not backed by anything material and nevertheless it works.

Experts say that the dollar will serve as the world's reserve currency until then, as long as countries use this money for international settlements and store it in domestic banks. Another factor in the stability of the dollar is the political strength of the United States. As long as the country is considered, its money, even if not backed by anything, will be in demand.

The whole drama of the situation is that if an economic crisis occurs in the United States, it will affect the entire world economy, including Russia.

Be sure to watch the recent speech of Vladimir Zhirinovsky where he proposes to abandon the dollar, which, in general, is logical from his words:

findings

Everyone is interested in the dollar exchange rate - from housewives to stock exchange traders. Millions of people around the world keep their assets in dollars. It is the number one reserve currency in the Russian Federation and a reliable financial instrument.

Everyone loves dollars, and not because they adore America. It's just that the dollar has a habit of steadily growing in value against many other national currencies. This does not mean that US money is not subject to periodic fluctuations in value. This also happens to them, only not as clearly and often as with the ruble.

Need to remember:

The ruble exchange rate depends on both the economy and geopolitics.
No expert can give a 100% correct forecast, since they cannot take into account the whole variety of factors.
It is safest to keep your savings in several currencies.
It is even safer to invest assets in more profitable instruments (stocks and bonds).

So, the answer to the question of what will happen to the dollar in the near future does not have a clear answer. And it is worth making money on speculation only if you have experience in stock trading. And the common man is better off keeping money in various financial instruments in addition to currency: real estate, precious metals, mutual funds (mutual funds).

PS Friends, what do you think will happen to the dollar in the near future? Leave your comments under the article and I will definitely answer them!

I wish you material well-being!

Respectfully yours, financial expert of the PAPA HELP business magazine,

(13 estimates, average: 4,38 out of 5)

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and the dollar cost in 2019; when the crisis in Russia ends, and so on.

After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability ... The stability of the national currency raises concerns, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own families, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and are worried about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and retirees preoccupied with one question: what will happen to the ruble / dollar in the near future?No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.

Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which one is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2019;
What will happen to the ruble in the near future - the latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

After reading the material to the end , you will find out our vision for forecasting the ruble and dollar exchange rates.

If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows very well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. The sanctions carried out by Western countries also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.

The motive for imposing sanctions against Russia was the political action in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result of which, one part of the population began to resist. Residents of the Crimean Peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express its desire to leave the unitary Ukraine. So, in 2014 year a referendum was held, which attracted more 83 % of votes for disconnection from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation, as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence of military action and an act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted disconnection from Ukraine.

As known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, have joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also influenced the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil and aircraft building.

In particular, restrictions apply to such companies in the Russian oil and gas industry:

Rosneft;
Transneft;
Gazpromneft.

Due to the actions of the sanctions, the following Russian banks were caught:

"Sberbank of Russia";
VTB;
Gazprombank;
VEB;
Rosselkhozbank.

The industry of the Russian Federation was also affected by the sanctions:

Uralvagonzavod;
Oboronprom;
United Aircraft Corporation.

The sanctions are to prohibit the residents of the European Union and their companies from performing transactions with securities, the validity of which more than 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of oil products.

In addition, Russians are prohibited from operations with European accounts, investment, securities and even consultations European companies. Also, the European Union has banned the transfer to Russia technologies, equipment and intellectual property (software, development) that can be used in the defense or civilian industry.

Introduced sanctionsagainst some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entering the EU, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who find themselves on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, companies that have come under sanctions are not allowed by Canadian companies to provide financing for more than 30 days.

US sanctions relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies to the territory of Russia, programs to support the military forces of Russia. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is forbidden to use spacecraft, in the development of which US forces participated, and which also include elements developed by the state. Due to this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G device.

America has banned the issuance of a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days .
All the sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, the freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia from participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relations among companies, banks etc.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and the development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion on the actions of Russia to lift the sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral position and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. By retaliating sanctions from Russia, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns middle East countries .

Cooperating, you can issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia establish your export... Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all due to prohibitions and sanctions.

Expanding oil and natural gas supplies will help Russia, over time, achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid that Ukraine will turn into a so-called black pit in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play a role. It is not worth waiting for such actions from the US government - having crouched under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is already not at the highest level.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019 📈📉

In recent years, the Russian national currency has fallen more than than 20%... The population has never seen such a strong fall in the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will behave in the future. This especially worries people who are going to buy or sell assets, the property, foreign currency and just people worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets from this broker .

The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, falling prices for oil and natural gas, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the depreciation rate of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign exchange did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left to influence the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now impact the course through inflation targeting. The basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and credit policy of the country.

Experts identify three main scenarios for the state of the ruble:

optimistic
anxious
realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to rebuilding and economic growth ... It is expected that the price of a barrel of oil in the countries of Asia and Korea will stabilize, which will rise to $ 95, and the dollar should acquire its former price. 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western states in relation to Russia, which will affect the increase in the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % ... Such changes are expected in the fall of 2019.

2nd scenario - Troubled scenario

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The collapse of the oil market only aggravates the situation with the stabilization of the ruble against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average dollar exchange rate in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the American dollar is 65-75 rubles.

According to some analysts and experts, our government's plans do not include taking measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is where the efforts of the state are directed.

Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia is coping with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and farmers.

Do not expect the ruble to stabilize its performance. If you turn to statistics 2014-2015 years, then we can recall that the percentage of expectations of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall in the economy cannot positively affect the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as a basis. And also the conditions for the action of all bans and sanctions... Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential internal and external investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the flow of material resources into the country, which has a detrimental effect on the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble exchange rate will begin to lose its current positions.

This will be facilitated by several reasons:

the first factor is forecasting a decline in oil prices on the world market. First of all, it concerns natural gas, which by its exports brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
the second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent annexation of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions from Western states, which also impede the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large capital outflow of the country.

With such events, GDP is expected to decline to an indicator that will be 3-3,5% ... The dollar will stabilize, its cost will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd scenario - Realistic scenario

According to the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only intensify.

As for the price of oil, in this situation it will remain the same price of $ 40-60 per barrel. The GDP level will approach zero, and according to some analysts and the World Bank forecasts, the GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator at all. A fall GDP will be approximately 0,7- 1 % .

The reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the rise and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In this situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex market. Many factors influence the decrease and increase in the rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we wrote an article about what a beginner trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Factors of ruble growth

Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive effect on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

Country policy. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at developing Russia.
Securities . Investing by Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is underdeveloped. Perhaps soon, Western investors will become more invest actively your capital while receiving income in the form of dividends.
Oil price. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources ... Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. Russia enriches its state budget by selling oil. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
The ratio of the population to the national currency... It is not immediately clear what is the meaning of these words, people normally relate to it. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the ruble exchange rate. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country's lending policy will become, respectively, the economic growth will not keep itself waiting long. Moreover, the ideal situation looks like when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, residents of the Russian Federation, as residentsand foreigners, have a great impact on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
Increasing the rate of national production... An increase in this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to overfulfill it. The high volume of production will ensure not only the needs of the country, but also export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors of the fall of the ruble

On weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate ... They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, our government should take thorough measures to prevent them.

Outflow of Russian capital... This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments in foreign currency. By exchanging our money savings into another currency, we ourselves, without knowing it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course... Thus, the capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a destructive effect on the position of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the fall in industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring low welfare for themselves.
Foreign currency rate... In this situation, the leading currency is exactly the one that has strong positions in the world foreign exchange market. It is impossible to influence this. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a strong position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening of the country's national currency... America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble loses its position... It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent a fall in the exchange rate, in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
Game of the population with exchange rates... The majority of Russians want to make money on the exchange rate. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. Thus, people ensure that their savings are securely stored through a stable currency. Huge transfers were made at the moments of a strong depreciation of the ruble exchange of Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures the fall of the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact of Russian distrust of the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
Central Bank Measures... During the fall of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could have prevented a significant fall in the ruble.
Share of gross domestic product... Russian production, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment... The equipment that has remained since the times of the Soviet Union does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to people's distrust of domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
Economic stagnation... This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing a particular product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer a higher quality for about the same price category as the domestic manufacturer. The West is known for its advanced technology production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to goods from another producer country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the fall in the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the opinion of experts 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2019 will clearly be a difficult test for russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts.

💡 We recommend that you first get acquainted with the opinion of experts and analytics from the company " ForexClub ". Following the link, you will find tabs and sections with the latest forecasts by a specialist, you can also buy and sell various assets through this broker.

Purchase and sale of instruments (stocks, currencies, etc.) is available through the "Tools" tab. The Analytics tab contains reviews, opinions and forecasts

Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge recession. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

Modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with Kudrin's opinion. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and a strong rise in the dollar foreshadows and Nikolay Salabuto ... While holding the post of the head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices for several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the level 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that this was influenced by several factors:

restrictive sanctionsthat will last at least until next year;
the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby "cutting off oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
national economy, which depends entirely on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development on the part of government agencies.
US Federal Reserve, the policy of which will be associated with some events.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion on the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.

But this will not in any way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of the Finnam Management company, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors mentioned above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , Director of the Group of Companies "ALOR" believes that conditionally the factors of the depreciation of the ruble can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that are not politically, legally or economically justified. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. This includes external sanctions from other states and the country's external debt.

It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the cost of oil in $ 74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall in the ruble. Such a price will contribute to the decrease by another 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagina more hopeful. He believes that the ruble's position today is the starting one. The analyst says that already in 2019, the national currency will adjust to the current situation and start grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of any of them, it is necessary for yourself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar versus the ruble. This dependency is displayed as follows: when the dollar rises, oil price goes down, respectively the ruble is losing ground ... When the price of oil rises, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

The graph of the dependence of the cost of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2019... External Economic Bank predicts the cost in 6 $ 0 per barrel and above ... At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $ 70, and the support level is equal to $ 42.

Thanks to the news of the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $ 69-70. If these levels are “broken”, the oil price is likely to “go” to $ 98-100. In case of "breaking" down $ 58 - moving to the range of $ 53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the oil price took the position of the absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $ 28 per barrel... That is, the price of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: latest news + expertforecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its positions against other foreign currencies, such as dollar and euro... Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble has lost most of its value.

Some foreign countries, experiencing economic crises, also saw a decline in the exchange rate of the national currency. Foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to make different forecasts about the economic situation in the Federation and about the exchange rate of the national currency, in particular.

Fluctuations in the ruble can be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions by the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts for the ruble exchange rate and oil prices ... According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles... As for the price of oil, it will stabilize at $ 63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for the leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the US policy to implement measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the world financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will equal 55-58 rublesif OPEC's policy will help raise oil prices up to $ 75-80.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows directed to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of a rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that an industry such as oil and gas will also suffer, due to lack of funding, and as a consequence of the inability to operate at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect currency relations, which will not be beneficial to our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts of the rate of the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to forecasts of one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman sachs , by 2019 the national currency rate will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar... The oil price will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be equal to $ 70 per barrel.

All world banks agree that the ruble is strengthening successfully. Forecasting the rise in oil prices is good news. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up on patience and baggage of action, because a quick return of the former situation should not be expected.

7. Frequently asked questions on the ruble and dollar rates 📢

Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2019?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the American currency has been agitating the population for some time. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of adviser to the president, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by the fact that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliation.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. Government policy is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the national currency of Russia.

for instance, trade in the national resource of Russia, like natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. In the event that large countries decide to sell America's Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in no time.

CEO of City Express Alexey Kithatov assesses the chances of canceling the dollar in the country as minimal. Kitchatov says this will be a huge blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that await the Russian people, since the savings of the population, to a large extent, are stored precisely in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, this will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two shadow turnover rates. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight capital outflow, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast of the ruble / dollar exchange rate for the next week?

In predicting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no particular reasons for the exchange rate stabilization.

We remind you that the latest forecasts and analytics regarding the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall anytime soon?

The ruble exchange rate, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments will be made in Russian capital, assets and the economy, the more reliable the position of the national currency will be. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is associated with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected by balance of imports and export ... These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this makes it possible to enrich the state budget.

In talking about this balance, it must be remembered that America has biggest national debt ... In addition, the United States has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's internal debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is a highly liquid and most convertible currency in the world. Why are the forecasts of experts from year to year not coming true, and the dollar remains the most popular currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the dollar's fall?

If the dollar still falls, another currency must come to replace... It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of conversion, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts cite euro to replace dollar... But do not forget that the European Union currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis ... This is first and foremost Greece, Portugal, Spain other.

This stagnation is also due to America's large debt to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, or rather on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currencyeven when all countries went through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets fell in value. This helped the dollar to strengthen its position even more. Even during the crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high level of conversion, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar ... This diversification takes place to preserve the accumulated funds and their possible increase.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the rate of its currency at a high level. If you believe the rumors that the fault of the economic crisis was one of the "powerful moves" by America, which was staged to support the national course.

By maintaining the economic situation in America in 2008, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period there was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, as demand for the dollar did not diminish. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar rate will not fall.

A fall in the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

the sale by large countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the abandonment of the dollar as a currency;
if countries stop trading with the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method, selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then use the same currency to pay off with another country for the required assets or goods.

If each country, when trading and buying, uses its own national currency, and not the dollar, then the rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question number 4. Will the dollar grow in 2019?

We have already described in detail possible forecasts for the dollar exchange rate. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the Fed's decision. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed is planning to raise the interest rate in the near future, which may negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

From time to time we will publish our forecasts and our visions on the ruble and dollar exchange rates, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyzes.

* Forecast of the dollar for the near future

From the latest technical analysis, it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make predictions yourself. Nobody knows the exact forecasts !!!

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9. Conclusion + related video 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for an early stabilization of the Russian national exchange rate. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon take place.

But despite such bright prospects, it is worth understanding that today Russia does not have the best economic situation, which can be influenced by various actions, and also not only internal , but also external political factors undertaken by the policies of other states.

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