Default is expected in. What will happen to deposits in case of default? Video news about the strengthening of the ruble

The concept of default today is "spinning on the tongue" for almost every Russian. And although today few can give a definition of its economic significance, the question of whether will Russia default in 2018, worries many.

The modern economy of the Russian Federation is unstable, and the unpaid external debts, the number of which has recently increased greatly, does not contribute to the strengthening of the current situation. So, default, in simple terms, is usually called non-repayment of debt. Its characteristic is that it precedes bankruptcy, because if the debt is not paid, therefore, the borrower goes into the category of insolvent.

The main reasons for non-payment of debt (on a national scale) can be the following problems:

There are several types of economic defaults - technical, corporate, sovereign and cross. The first type is the most difficult, because the borrower (in this case, the state) does not fulfill its financial obligations without "good" reasons, and there are no visible obstacles to default.

The second type (sovereign) is developing against the background of a recession in the economy and is characterized by a prolonged economic stagnation, of everything that is observed today in the territory of the Russian Federation, therefore it is not completely logical, many are thinking about what awaits Russia in 2018. Will there be a default in the country, one can also say by its ability to pay certain interest on the collected financial bonds, if the debts are not paid, then it is worth thinking about the negative development of the event.

Cross-default on a national scale is very rare, because it is characterized by non-fulfillment of financial obligations on loans, but everyone should have an idea about it, because no one is insured against the development of such a situation.

What to expect in 2018?

Separately, it is worth discussing the issue of what will happen to the Russian Federation in 2018. Economic outlook for default it has a chance for some development, because the problem of the financial deficit in certain Russian regions is incredibly acute, and in the near future it can only get worse (such data is provided by one of the leading professors of the Higher School of Economics, Igor Nikolaev).

2018 should become significant in the sense that the well-known "May" presidential decrees, according to which the income of state employees should not only increase, but also be equal to the average level of wages in each specific region, will have to be fulfilled. It is because of the implementation of the decrees that the problem of the budget deficit has worsened, because the president has set a goal to fulfill them at any cost. However, won't this price turn out to be too high afterwards?

However, reflecting on the fact whether Russia will default, the expert answers with confidence that such a development of events is unlikely. The federal authorities, according to his forecast, will not allow a sharp aggravation of the situation in the state, if only because the next presidential elections are planned for 2018, and before this event the situation in the country is usually idealized.

The funds for covering the budgetary needs in the Reserve Fund of the Russian Federation will very soon run out (closer to the middle of the 18th year), but money can also be taken from the National Welfare Fund, and it will need to be used to maintain financial support for the regions. However, frankly speaking, the problem of budget deficit in the regions will persist for many years.

What else are the experts talking about?

More accurate data regarding the further development of events can be obtained from video that Russia will default 2018, where experts express different points of view and reflect on the likelihood of this event developing. Regional expert Natalya Zubarevich, for example, is sure that there can be no default, although many today talk about the development of the so-called “default of regions” (separate parts of the country). Today, many regions have significant financial problems, but they will have to be solved on the scale of the state, and not individual regions, because it cannot coexist separately, like their problems (although today the total debt in finance for different regions is about 2 trillion rubles).

Given the situation that has developed in the Russian economy, more and more often residents are wondering whether there will be a default in Russia in 2019. Such thoughts are prompted not only by the sanctions imposed by Western countries.

The population is expecting a default for a number of reasons: the continuing decline in oil prices, growing inflation, and the ongoing military conflict near the Russian borders. And not a single sane person can take this calmly. People are pinning their hopes on the country's leadership, expecting that it will have enough experience to prevent another default.

If you turn to the textbooks of economics, then you can find out from them what factors contributed to the past default. And if you compare them with the current situation in the country, you can understand whether a default is possible in Russia in 2019.

1. Significant difference between current and planned income. When calculating the budget of Russia for 2019, the oil price of $ 41.6 was included in it. But after the decline in quotations of "black gold" there was a decrease in income. This led to a deficit in the budget, which forced the authorities to reduce the planned expenditures. This was the only correct decision, since otherwise the country would have been forced to declare a default.
2. Reduced income caused by insufficient tax revenues and falling prices for exported goods.
3. Economic crisis.
4. Leapfrog in leadership positions, as well as abrupt changes in political course.
5. Force Majeure.

Given these factors, it is not yet clear whether Russia is in danger of default. Attempts by the authorities to prevent a new default are visible. But if you rely on the opinion of experts, then such an outcome is unlikely.

Will there be a default?

The current situation in the country confirms once again that the level of well-being of the population has decreased. Moreover, as a result of the economic crisis, not only ordinary citizens suffered, but also small businesses. The current situation is such that many people were laid off, and this happened not only because of the sanctions, but also the difficulties at the enterprises themselves, which could not properly dispose of loans and reorganize in the light of new events.

The situation was aggravated not only by a decrease in the incomes of the country's residents, but also by an increase in inflation.

Nor does it inspire hope for an improvement in the situation and the position of the ruble, the rate of which may fall against the dollar and euro after the extension and introduction of new economic sanctions.

Observing all this, ordinary residents are increasingly thinking that a default in Russia in 2019 is possible.

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But experts do not agree with this. They declare that things are not so bad. Even if there is a default in our country, it will be limited to technical only. Experts pin their hopes on the correctly chosen policy of the authorities, which will be able to prevent bankruptcy.

Prerequisites for default

Specialists of the Central Bank, as well as financial experts, do not expect that life in the country will be able to normalize in the coming year. Until the sanctions are lifted and the political situation with neighbors stabilizes, there can be no talk of normalizing life in the country. Therefore, it is impossible to say unequivocally whether Russia will default.

As a result of the imposition of sanctions, most of the domestic banks suffered, which do not receive sufficient financial support from the state. Because of this, they do not have the opportunity to continue cooperation with European financial institutions.

And finding themselves in a similar situation, they have to make a decision to temporarily suspend cooperation with international structures, or to completely terminate it.

According to experts, the search for new partners in the Asian market may be a way out in such a situation. And today, active attempts are visible to establish relations with Asian banking institutions.

The main consequence of the default for Russia will be a significant decrease in gold and foreign exchange reserves. And this will lead to the fact that banks will provide loans on more stringent conditions. After all, when the Central Bank has large reserves, it has the ability to provide more loans, and this makes it possible to soften the terms of their issuance.

The positive side of default

Despite the fact that experts do not rule out the likelihood of default and call it an extremely negative phenomenon, it also has certain advantages, the essence of which is briefly as follows.

Having the opportunity to completely write off debts or postpone their return, the country is released from obligations, which allows it to throw all its strength into economic recovery. The creditor countries know about this, and therefore, in the hope of getting at least some money, they agree to write off a significant part of the debt to the bankrupt country or exempt from interest payments.

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When a country declares itself bankrupt, it can start restoring its own production by increasing competition within the country. As a result, industries that were previously in a "frozen" state due to lack of funding are beginning to develop.

A bankrupt country has the opportunity to reorient its economy to a new development strategy, to organize processes in such a way as to become independent of imports.

The ability to stabilize the national exchange rate through, for example, devaluation.

Naturally, no one argues that the default causes serious damage to the well-being of citizens and negatively affects its position in the international arena. However, in the long term it can improve the health of the country and give it the opportunity to reach a new level of development.

1998 default

The last time a default occurred in our country due to lack of money, and it was in 1998, the reason for it was the collapse of the USSR. Then the national economy was going through hard times, and the lack of sufficient financial resources forced the leadership of our country to take large loans year after year. The default of 1998 in Russia contributed to an increase in public debt, and in 1998 it was already 50% of GDP.

Emergence

The rapid recovery of the country's economy was hampered by a sharp decline in oil and gas prices, which just happened in 1998. And given that at that time the Russian economy was entirely dependent on these resources, its situation became even more deplorable.

The last straw that caused the default of 1998 in Russia was the wrong policy of the country's leadership and the Central Bank.

After the default, when there was still little money, the economy began to recover, which naturally stimulated the growth of the GDP level. This made it possible to gradually pay off the national debt. And when new people came to the government in 1999, our country was able to strengthen its position in the world arena.

Effects

Many people remember that the most terrible date of that period was August 17, 1998. Assessing the situation, the country's leadership, namely the government, announced a default on external debts. Due to the lack of money, it was decided to devalue the national currency and stop servicing some obligations.

The default had an extremely negative effect on the national currency, the rate of which dropped by 4 times. If before the default the exchange rate of the national currency against the dollar was 6 rubles, then later it increased to 24 rubles.

Default in Russia 2019: a crisis and devastation awaits us, or will it be possible to strengthen the economy and still implement the plans for import substitution?The consequences of a default in Russia in 2019 may be more dire than in 1998. The ruble exchange rate continues to remain unstable, and economists predict a further deterioration in the situation.

There will be a default in Russia in 2018 if only the amount of public debt increases and the country cannot pay its obligations at all. Given that government debt is small today, a default this year is hardly possible.

Another thing is that by default in Russia, many understand unemployment, rising prices, economic and social crisis. These events, unfortunately, are waiting for us without fail - the opinions of most financial analysts agree on this. Black Tuesday is just around the corner and, despite the Kremlin's optimistic slogans, it is now extremely important for Russians to at least mentally prepare for the upcoming events.

And the sanctions are in effect ...

So, according to the latest news, the US sanctions hit the Russian stock market for the first time - the shares of RusAl, En + Group, Sberbank, and dozens of other companies collapsed. The fall is quite significant - by 26-28%, with the deprivation of long-term growth prospects.

It is quite possible that in the near future the securities of other enterprises will also fall, in respect of whose co-owners personal sanctions have been introduced. In particular, Oleg Deripaska is related to the companies GAZ, Basic Element, restrictions have been introduced in relation to the heads of Gazprom, Renova Group and VTB Bank.

Personal losses of corporate owners from Russia are estimated at $ 12 billion.

What threatens the collapse of the Russian stock market? A decrease in the profitability of enterprises, a decrease in investment, and as a result, savings on wages, layoffs, and a slowdown in economic growth.

The collapse has already hit the national currency - the ruble fell, despite the rise in oil, by 13%. Accordingly, the West is driving Russia into yet another crisis pit. It will be very difficult to overcome it with a great lag in almost all spheres, except for the military.

And again the same rake ...

Remembering perestroika, the 1998 default, the 2009 crisis and comparing all this with the current events, one can be sure that our country has once again stepped on the same rake. The main prerequisites for the default in 2019 in Russia are the same - cardinal unjustifiably inflated budgets, huge military and geopolitical spending, corruption. And also - tougher sanctions in order to change power and enforce peace.

Recent reforms in taxes and excise taxes could kill businesses, and, consequently, jobs. Although, of course, the leadership of today's Russia must be given its due - at least with regard to banking policy, the measures were taken in the end, the right ones, the key rate was lowered. But raising taxes is stupid, since the load is already high. According to forecasts, after tougher sanctions may rise to 75-80 rubles, but smoothly, and not like in 1998, when he banged overnight.

The consequences of today's decline can be dire. After all, everyone was joking about the 2009 crisis, and now times are approaching when there will be really nothing to eat. Only about 30% of own goods are produced in Russia - this is the official share. So far, everything rests on some kind of reserves, and the stabilization fund is helping, but these resources will not be enough for a long time. Today everyone understands that the bravado before the sanctions has failed. Putin did not give a boost to the economy, but only made the situation worse.

In recent years, in general, there has been practically no struggle for the financial situation of our compatriots, and it is already very difficult to improve it today. Where to get resources for a country whose economy is supported by nothing but raw materials? And, given that Europe and the United States are introducing an additional wave of embargoes, the default of 2018 in Russia is quite predictable, albeit not at the state level, but at the business level. Now the structures care only about one thing - to minimize unrest in society by strengthening the law enforcement agencies, and to preserve their reputation, at least through the media.

Therefore, everyone sees how the economy froze in place, stable and fatal. And there are still reserves. When the same ruble finally depreciates, and large companies start to burn out, society will already have time to come to terms with this.

McCain was right

Alas, US Senator John McCain was absolutely right when he called Russia "a gas station playing country." Having increased oil production in the early 2000s, the authorities began a struggle not for the future of Russia, but exclusively for the votes of voters. Instead of putting the money into business, it was wasted.

People felt stability, young families received apartments, teachers began to receive more, for the first time the latest military weapons were presented at military exhibitions.

How could the patriots not rejoice and love their president? But such an internal policy is very good for the authorities, which will leave to their successors a completely ruined and impoverished country (and in fact the 2000s will be remembered by pensioners with the same nostalgia as the USSR!), But for future generations it is deadly. The collapse of the USSR was also triggered by the oil crisis. And the default of 1998 is also an oil crisis. And here we are again, due to our own short-sightedness, humbly awaiting the default in Russia in 2019.

Alas, the truth is also on the side of Adam Smith, who tells us about the wealth of manufacturing states. We would give the money earned from oil to entrepreneurs, let it go into the real sector of the economy - into production and technology, we would not only sell oil to the whole world, but also cars, planes, trains.

Even one well-developed branch of Russian mechanical engineering, for example, the aircraft industry, would help Russia become independent.

Here is the result of erroneous domestic politics and their own Soviet mentality - the Americans have everything, from a mobile phone to an airplane, their products are bought by the whole planet, and Russia has only a TV set and a nuclear missile.

And why, one wonders, the current government, knowing full well about the raw material dependence of their state, went to fight in Ukraine and carry out the Crimean scam? Didn't she have a presentiment of the 2019 ruble default, sanctions and the crisis? Did she seriously think that Russia, with its 1.5% of world GDP, and at the same time being economically dependent on the EU and the United States, could somehow influence the world politically?

In fact, everything is very simple - the current system is a 100% PR project. Stability, Crimea, Bandera, Donbass, Syria - all this is pure PR. If the system was actually opposed to war and would like to make the country rich and strong, it would develop production and science. Then, you see, the Ukrainians themselves would have fled to Russia. And the Americans would start to respect us. And people would not be afraid of anything. And so - the country is again entering a period of turmoil, devastation and anger. Nothing has changed in 100 years.

Of course, there will be no default in 2019 and there will be no total devastation. Only the province will die out faster. But it would not have happened that, after a couple of years, the depleted funds dazzled Russians with dramatic and catastrophic changes.

Despite the difficult economic situation after the crisis, in 2018 Russia will be able to avoid default on its obligations. The rise in oil prices will provide the budget with the necessary revenues. Unlike the federal budget, the regions do not have a significant margin of financial strength, which can lead to negative consequences.

The Russian economy continues to recover from the crisis, which is reflected in the main macroeconomic parameters. Despite moderate GDP growth (within 1.5-2%), the increase in oil prices allowed the government to increase budget revenues. As a result, the authorities are planning to cut the state treasury budget.

In 2018, the budget deficit will amount to 1.33 trillion rubles, the Ministry of Finance predicts, which is significantly better than the indicators of previous periods. Officials emphasize that the budget deficit will be reduced to 1.6% (during the crisis, the deficit exceeded 3%). By 2020, the Ministry of Finance plans to reduce this figure to 0.8%.

The authorities' optimism is associated with the positive dynamics of the oil market. Oil prices reached the range of $ 50-55 / bbl, which significantly increased export earnings. The latest news indicates a further increase in oil prices in 2018, which will ensure a positive trend in fiscal performance.

Despite the restoration of the balance between income and expenses, experts note an increase in debt on external liabilities. According to the Central Bank, the ratio of external debt to GDP in 2016 reached 42%, which is the highest value since 2004. In addition, a reduction in foreign exchange earnings leads to a deterioration in the indicator of external debt security.

The rise in oil prices removes from the agenda the question of whether there will be a default in Russia in 2018. The improvement in the structure of the domestic economy and the restoration of positive growth rates allow counting on a further increase in the credit rating of the Russian Federation on the part of international rating agencies. However, representatives of the Central Bank emphasize the risks that could lead to a worsening of the economic situation.

Risk factors

The lion's share of budget revenues comes from the export of energy resources, which poses a threat to the sustainable growth of the Russian economy. Without structural reforms, the domestic economic model will remain vulnerable to external challenges, including a new period of declining oil prices.

According to the experts of the Central Bank, the negative dynamics of the labor market remains another threat to the recovery of economic growth. The shortage of qualified personnel will negatively affect GDP growth in the medium term. In addition, business representatives need to increase investment in the modernization of production facilities.

The existing financial reserves will allow the Russian Federation to avoid default in the near future, even with a new collapse of the oil market. The Central Bank's international reserves exceeded the $ 420 billion mark, which indicates a recovery in positive dynamics. In addition, the authorities were able to preserve the reserves of the Reserve Fund, which were actively spent during the crisis.

Despite the stability of the federal budget, experts note the vulnerability of the regional financial system. Officials believe that no default of regional budgets is expected in 2018. However, representatives of the HSE emphasize the lack of financial reserves in the regions.

Regions under attack

HSE Professor Igor Nikolaev notes the accumulated problems of regional budgets, which in the near future may lead to a serious crisis. Next year, the authorities intend to fulfill the "May" presidential decrees, which will lead to additional costs.

In such conditions, the authorities will be forced to increase financial support for the regions at the expense of the federal budget. The budgets of 40 constituent entities of the Russian Federation remain in deficit, which indicates the presence of systemic problems.

The weakest regions may face default next year, expert Yevsey Gurvich believes. At the same time, the government will support systemically important regions, the defaults of which can lead to uncontrollable consequences.

Next year, the Russian Federation will be able to avoid default, the government assures. After several years of recession, the domestic economy is moving towards sustainable growth. In addition, the increase in oil prices improves the performance of the federal budget.

Among the negative trends, experts point out a deterioration in the ratio of external debt to GDP and a shortage of qualified personnel. In addition, the sustainability of regional budgets will depend on transfers from the federal budget.

Look video on whether the ruble will be denominated in 2019:

The economic situation that has developed over the past decade is causing a new wave of social and financial problems for Russian citizens today. On the other hand, statistics clearly indicate the impossibility of a default in Russia in 2018.

News about the impossibility of default in 2018

1. First, budget expenditures will be reduced from 16.24 to 16.04 trillion rubles;
2. Second, the public debt will decrease to almost 14.9%;
3. Third, external debt to other countries will amount to only 3.6%;
4. Fourth, public debt spending will stop at 0.9% of GDP;
5. Fifth, GDP is expected to grow to 1.5-2.7%;
6. Sixth, the price of a barrel of oil is expected to be $ 60-40, inflation will remain at 4%.

Default types in 2018

Economists take into account several of its main types, tied to eventfulness, by their characteristic features, final claims:

1. The first is technical. When the borrowing country is able to reimburse payments, but ignores the obligations under the agreement with the creditor country. At the same time, there are no visible obstacles, "pitfalls". Such a situation is hardly possible for the Russian state;
2. The second is sovereign. The state is forced to suspend the repayment of the external loan, since an economic crisis has arisen sharply, due to which it is necessary to change the economic policy. Because of which, the country's authority in the international market of creditor countries is being lost. According to experts, this is unlikely for Russia;
3. The third is corporate. When a country, according to its debt obligations, does not actually pay even the interest on common bonds. In other words, it is, in fact, in a state of bankruptcy, being able to defend itself from creditors only in court. Which is also unlikely to happen;
4. The fourth is cross-default. When the debtor cannot suddenly fulfill some clauses of the debt obligations of the contract, which is reflected in a chain reaction on other concluded credit programs. Alternatively, it is also unlikely.

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For what reasons is default impossible in 2018

Such an unattractive incident as a default can arise both for an individual borrower of a large enterprise, and for the whole country. There are many reasons for this. At the same time, two similar concepts should not be confused: the inability of the borrower to repay the debt due to the circumstances that have arisen, that is, the state of default with the state of bankruptcy.

Individual Russian enterprises, some of the large holdings today have or will have large loans from other states. Whether they will be able to cover their next future debts, debts of 2018, this is the question.

Video forecast: expectation of the ruble correction

But this will in no way affect the servicing of Russia's external debts to other states, even if the ruble weakening. Because the loans themselves are very small.

In general, it is difficult to imagine that Russia, as a debtor, will not fulfill its debt obligations of 2018 to other creditor states. Failure to pay part of the debts, interest on them, breakdown of the credit agreement, failure to comply with the terms of the concluded agreements - such a situation is impossible for our country.

As the figures of economic development of the future twelve-month period speak eloquently about this. Check for yourself by comparing the arguments of the experts.